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FOMO revenge trading and process bias

P06-L07 · P06 · P06-M02

Identify a process violation independently of profit or loss

ILLUSTRATIVE · needs_review

Prerequisites: P06-L06

Learning objectives

  • Identify a process violation independently of profit or loss
  • Evaluate a process breach independently of outcome.
  • Write a contemporaneous fictional decision journal.

EN source master · P06-L07 · 30 minutes estimated · needs_review

Offline formative study. No wallet connection, real funds, private keys, signatures, live trade or personal portfolio inputs. Visuals are specifications. This source master remains needs_review; completing the formative exercise does not issue certification.

Why this matters

A profitable result can reinforce a rule violation if the journal records only outcomes.

Explanation

Define the process contract first

This original teaching rubric requires a completed assumption sheet, reviewer acknowledgment and unchanged quantity until a new review. It is a supplied fictional desk policy, not a universal psychological diagnosis or personal trading plan. Fear of missing out (FOMO) denotes urgency about missing an event; revenge trading denotes attempts to compensate for a prior loss. A journal can record those stated motivations without proving a medical condition.

Grade behavior before revealing P&L

EventA changes quantity after a loss without review and later earns+30. EventB follows the recorded review and later loses−20. A breaches the process; B does not. Outcomes do not retroactively change what information or authorization existed.

Keep observations and interpretation apart

A recorded statement 'I must recover it now' is directly present in the fixture. Inferring that it contributed to haste requires context; an internal emotion or stable trait is not established. Compare alternatives such as misunderstanding the procedure. Do not assign identities or diagnoses.

Build a journal that exposes uncertainty

Record cutoff, supplied assumptions, proposed change, required review, decision rationale, unresolved facts and later outcome in separate fields. CFTC notes that hypothetical results can omit real decision conditions [CFTC]; our process rehearsal is not evidence of future behavior or safety. The educational correction is to flag the breach and seek the stipulated review in the fictional workflow, not place an actual trade.

Key terms

  • Process breach: deviation from a supplied rule.
  • Outcome bias: judging prior decision quality solely by result.
  • FOMO: reported urgency about missing an opportunity.
  • Journal cutoff: information available when deciding.

Historical example

ILLUSTRATIVE policy: assumption sheet and reviewer acknowledgment required before any quantity change. A atT1 after fictional loss says'I must recover it now', doubles quantity without review; later+30. B completes required review, keeps authorized quantity; later−20. NamesA/B are training events, not people.

Visual specifications

Evidence panel with policy/compliance lane visible before outcome lane; reveal+30/−20 after grading. Keep reported statements, inferred motivation and unavailable emotions distinct.

What the evidence proves

Which supplied events comply with the stipulated process.

What the evidence does not prove

A person's mental state, a profitable process, future discipline or financial suitability.

Evidence classifications

  • OBSERVED: FIX-P06-L07 records unreviewed quantity change in A.
  • INFERRED: stated recovery urgency may have contributed to haste; misunderstanding remains an alternative.
  • UNKNOWN: actual internal emotion or persistent trait.
  • INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE: A's profit proves the breach was sound.

Common mistakes

  • Rewarding a breach because profitable.
  • Diagnosing from one sentence.
  • Rewriting rationale after seeing P&L.

Practical exercise

Grade A/B against policy before using outcomes. Draft A's decision-time journal and later outcome addendum. Name an alternative interpretation and two missing facts.

Deliver calculations or annotations, claim/source table and limitations. Suggested allocation: study 12 minutes, exercise 8, correction/quiz 10; estimate subject to calibration.

Show worked correction

A breaches the review requirement; B complies despite its loss. A journal records prior loss context, recovery statement, quantity change, absent acknowledgment and unresolved rationale; later+30 is a separate addendum. A may have misunderstood policy; comprehension and internal emotion are UNKNOWN. Profit cannot establish process correctness or future repeatability.

Formative rubric (5 points): reproducible inputs, correct method, correct result, claim-specific evidence scope, explicit limitations. Invented observation, advisory output or unsupported safety claim requires correction regardless of score.

Checklist

  • Freeze policy before grading.
  • Record decision-time facts.
  • Reveal outcomes separately.
  • Avoid diagnosis or personalized prescriptions.

Summary

Process review evaluates supplied rules and contemporaneous actions; outcomes and inferred motivations stay in separate lanes.

Summary

  • Evaluate a process breach independently of outcome.
  • Write a contemporaneous fictional decision journal.

Next lesson

P06-L08 after correction review.

Tools

NONE in the authoritative catalog. The supplied offline fixture/package is sufficient; no paid feature or unverified Production capability is required. Lab/certification metadata denotes downstream associations, not access gates or live awards.

Sources & claim boundaries

  • [CFTC] CFTC — Trading systems advisory — Hypothetical execution, cost and stop-order limitations; no profit guarantee. Checked 2026-10-01; locator turn12view1.

Visual specifications

P06-L07-V01

SPECIFICATION_ONLY · ILLUSTRATIVE

Identify a process violation independently of profit or loss

ILLUSTRATIVE — fictional inputs; no signal or safety guarantee.

Evidence panel with policy/compliance lane visible before outcome lane; reveal+30/−20 after grading. Keep reported statements, inferred motivation and unavailable emotions distinct.

Evidence panel with policy/compliance lane visible before outcome lane; reveal+30/−20 after grading. Keep reported statements, inferred motivation and unavailable emotions distinct.

At 390px stack chart/table, assumptions, correction and source panel; provide complete text equivalent. Rendering pending.

RTL explanatory prose; numeric values, IDs and chronological axes stay LTR; preserve dependency directions.

FIX-P06-L07

Sources & claim boundaries

Dataset provenance

id: FIX-P06-L07

dataStatus: ILLUSTRATIVE

observedAt: null

timeBasis: T/SIM markers are fictional order, not timestamps.

source: Author-created fixture embedded in this lesson.

scope: No market observation, usable address, secret, signature or personal financial data.

Test your reasoning

P06-L07-Q1 · Which event breaches the policy?
P06-L07-Q2 · Does B's loss prove a breach?
P06-L07-Q3 · What is directly supplied about A?
P06-L07-Q4 · Where does+30 belong?
P06-L07-Q5 · What is a defensible interpretation?