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Supply market cap and FDV

P01-L05 · P01 · P01-M02

Calculate valuations and explain their liquidity limits

ILLUSTRATIVE · needs_review

Prerequisites: P01-L04

Learning objectives

  • Calculate valuations and explain their liquidity limits
  • Calculate market capitalization and a stated FDV convention.
  • Reconcile circulating, total and maximum supply.
  • Explain why valuation is not executable liquidity.

EN source master · P01-L05 · 30 minutes estimated · needs_review

Read-only study. No wallet connection, real money, seed phrase, private key, signature or live trade. Duration is an editorial estimate; visual assets are specifications, not deployed components.

Why this matters

A large valuation number can coexist with very little available trading depth. The calculation answers a multiplication question, not how much cash holders could collectively receive.

Explanation

Specify each input

Circulating supply is a provider-defined estimate of units treated as circulating. Total supply describes issued units under a specified accounting definition; maximum supply is a cap only when such a cap is actually supported. ERC-20 totalSupply does not itself supply a circulating-supply methodology [ERC20]. CoinGecko describes its own exclusions and calculates market capitalization from price and circulating supply [SUPPLY]. Different methods must not be mixed silently.

Record the price's quote currency, time and venue or aggregation basis. A price without those fields cannot be reliably paired with a supply snapshot. If a cap is unavailable or issuance is uncapped, do not invent a finite maximum.

Calculate without adding meaning

For this lesson, market cap = price × circulating supply; FDV = price × stipulated maximum supply. State that FDV convention explicitly because displayed products may use different denominators. The result is a valuation at an assumed marginal price, not deposited cash, realized proceeds or a guaranteed future market value.

The exercise freezes the price to isolate supply arithmetic. That simplification is not a forecast that price will stay constant when supply changes. If an unlock occurs, both available units and market conditions may change; this arithmetic alone cannot model the response.

Test liquidity separately

Liquidity concerns execution at a size under actual order/pool conditions. Multiplying a small-trade quote by every unit assumes a price that may not be executable for that quantity. A useful report therefore has a separate liquidity field. If no depth is supplied, write UNKNOWN rather than infer it from market cap.

Reconcile categories

Keep the categories non-overlapping before summing them. The fixture defines circulating and locked units as an exhaustive partition of current total supply. Maximum minus total is unissued capacity, not currently locked inventory. A chart that stacks circulating, total and maximum as three holdings double-counts nested quantities. Label each denominator and each assumption.

Evidence-state classification

OBSERVED in the illustrative cards: price, supply categories and stipulated unlock. INFERRED: market-cap/FDV arithmetic and unchanged total issuance under those assumptions. UNKNOWN: executable depth and realized proceeds. INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE: marginal-price valuation proves that all units can be liquidated at that price.

Key terms

  • Circulating supply: units included under a stated method.
  • Total supply: issued units under the chosen accounting.
  • FDV (fully diluted valuation): price times a disclosed diluted-supply basis.
  • Liquidity: execution capacity at a specified size and cost.

Historical example

ILLUSTRATIVE at SIM-S0. TOKEN-Q price=2 quote-units/token; circulating=1000000; locked issued=3000000; total=4000000; stipulated maximum=10000000. No order book or pool depth. At SIM-S1, a hypothetical 500000-unit unlock occurs with price held fixed solely for arithmetic.

Visual specifications

Holder/supply distribution: partition maximum into circulating1m, locked3m, unissued6m. Separate valuation boxes2m/20m quote-units, with liquidity UNKNOWN. Alt: maximum supply is partitioned without double counting.

What the evidence proves

Arithmetic under the frozen price, supply partition and FDV convention.

What the evidence does not prove

Cash invested, executable proceeds, reserve backing or future price.

Common mistakes

  • Adding total and circulating supply.
  • Treating a valuation as available cash.
  • Assuming an unlock leaves price unchanged outside the exercise.

Practical exercise

Calculate initial market cap, FDV and unissued capacity. Compute circulating/locked quantities after the unlock. Can a holder liquidate 1000000 tokens for 2000000 quote-units?

Submit a short evidence table and reasoning, using only the provided material. Suggested allocation: study 12 min, inspection/calculation 8 min, correction/quiz 10 min.

Show worked correction

Initial market cap=2000000; FDV=20000000 quote-units. Unissued capacity=6000000 tokens. After the stipulated unlock: circulating=1500000, locked=2500000, total unchanged at4000000. Fixed-price arithmetic cap=3000000; it is not a prediction. Executable proceeds are UNKNOWN: no depth, costs or price response supplied.

Review rubric: 1 point each for exact scope, source/fixture provenance, correct reasoning, explicit limitations and safe offline handling (5 total). An invented observation or unsupported human attribution requires correction regardless of score. This is formative feedback, not certification.

Checklist

  • Disclose supply method and snapshot.
  • State FDV denominator.
  • Keep nested quantities separate.
  • Require independent depth for execution claims.

Summary

A large valuation number can coexist with very little available trading depth. The calculation answers a multiplication question, not how much cash holders could collectively receive. The supplied material supports arithmetic under the frozen price, supply partition and FDV convention. It does not establish cash invested, executable proceeds, reserve backing or future price.

Summary

  • Calculate market capitalization and a stated FDV convention.
  • Reconcile circulating, total and maximum supply.
  • Explain why valuation is not executable liquidity.

Next lesson

P01-L06 after reviewing this exercise and its prerequisites.

Tools

NONE. The authoritative catalog requires no product access for this lesson. Use the frozen/offline material.

Sources & claim boundaries

  • [SUPPLY] CoinGecko methodology — Provider's own circulating-supply and market-cap methodology, not universal truth. Checked 2026-10-01.
  • [ERC20] ERC-20 token standard — Token balances, optional decimals, transfer, approval and allowance interfaces. Checked 2026-10-01.

Synthetic values are author-created exercise inputs. Historical values, if any, must use the linked dataset and its narrower provenance. Source inspection is not independent editorial acceptance.

Visual specifications

P01-L05-V01

SPECIFICATION_ONLY · ILLUSTRATIVE

Calculate valuations and explain their liquidity limits

Illustrative teaching data; not a live screen

Holder/supply distribution: partition maximum into circulating1m, locked3m, unissued6m. Separate valuation boxes2m/20m quote-units, with liquidity UNKNOWN. Alt: maximum supply is partitioned without double counting.

maximum supply is partitioned without double counting.

390px stacked rows with complete text equivalent; 768px/desktop render acceptance pending

RTL prose; identifiers and number units remain LTR; preserve factual arrow directions

FIX-P01-L05

Sources & claim boundaries

SUPPLY · PRIMARY_DOCUMENTATION

CoinGecko methodology

Supported claim
Provider's own circulating-supply and market-cap methodology, not universal truth.
Verification boundary
Primary page inspected for the stated mechanism or attributed publication; does not authenticate illustrative data.
Checked at
2026-10-01
Open primary source
https://www.coingecko.com/en/methodology

ERC20 · PRIMARY_DOCUMENTATION

ERC-20 token standard

Supported claim
Token balances, optional decimals, transfer, approval and allowance interfaces.
Verification boundary
Primary page inspected for the stated mechanism or attributed publication; does not authenticate illustrative data.
Checked at
2026-10-01
Open primary source
https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-20

Dataset provenance

id: FIX-P01-L05

dataStatus: ILLUSTRATIVE

source: Original teaching fixture embedded below; not externally observed

observedAt: null

timeBasis: SIM/T markers are fictional; no real timestamp or chain observation

scope: Invalid training labels; no usable wallet, key or signature

Test your reasoning

P01-L05-Q1 · Initial market cap?
P01-L05-Q2 · FDV under this convention?
P01-L05-Q3 · Post-unlock total supply?
P01-L05-Q4 · Can all units realize the quoted price?
P01-L05-Q5 · Unissued capacity before unlock?